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英国硕士论文范例: DCF,DDM和EVA经济模型的比较与分析

时间:2013-07-31 15:40来源:www.ukassignment.org 编辑:selina 点击:
这是一篇硕士毕业论文,是关于对三种经济模式DCF,DDM和EVA的比较与分析,并依此来预测企业的价值等相关内容的论文

Moving to DDM model, this model use long term interest rate to calculate the firm’s value, because DDM believe that the present value of dividends could be realized by risk free rate, it does not need WACC. Nicholas .H (the vice president at Pareo Inc) pointed that the discount rate for the DDM is the cost of equity or CAPM; whereas the discount rate for DCF is a weighted cost of debt and equity or WACC. Also Aswath Damodaran proved this viewpoint in his book.49 Similar to DCF, DDM was mentioned by John Burr Williams's in his 'The Theory of Investment Value' book in 1938, and differentiated with DCF, DDM only focus on the dividends paid, it relies on one fact, that is, any stock is ultimately worth no more than what it will provide investors in current and future dividends, says that the value of a stock is worth all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.50 According to the DDM, it assumes that dividends are the cash flows that are returned to the shareholder.
移动到DDM模型,这种模型使用长期利率来计算企业的价值,因为DDM认为股利的现值,可以实现无风险利率,它不需要加权平均资本成本。尼古拉斯H(Pareo的企业副总裁)指出的DDM折现率是股本或资本资产定价模型的成本,而DCF折现率是一个加权债务和股权成本或加权平均资本成本。

Like DCF, DDM model was set up by the plenty of assumptions, the most important assumption is DDM believe the dividends are steady, or grow at a constant rate indefinitely, and based on the dividends growth rate, DDM derived two sub-model, zero growth

And constant growth
 

Or call Gordon Dividend Growth Model.

As the traditional evaluation method, DDM exist a fatal shortcoming. Merely concentrate on the dividends paid, if a firm does not pay the dividend, DDM model will consider this firm is non-value, because the numerator is zero, but actually, a few of firms will use remain profits to re-invest some projects which have positive NPV, although they did not pay the dividends. Also if one firm has high dividends growth rate, it means g > r, obviously, the denominator is negative, the equation is not exist.

After analyzing DCF and DDM method, researchers realized that these two models cannot assess the firm’s value well. Due to the limitation of DDM, and the small changes lead to unreliable consequence in DCF, investors are eager to find an ideal method to forecast the value of firms. Nowadays, EVA is a popular calculation method in the world and it is a modified version of DCF model.
DCF和DDM方法分析后,研究人员意识到,这两种模式不能很好地评估企业价值。由于DDM的限制,小的变化导致不可靠的结果在DCF,投资者急于找到一个理想的方法来预测企业的价值。如今,EVA是一种流行的计算方法,在世界上,它是一个DCF模型修改后的版本。
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Economic value added (EVA) is a performance measure developed by Joel Stern, and is a registered trademark of Stern Stewart & Co in 1982,53 that attempts to measure the true economic profit produced by a company. It is base on three simple ideas: cash is king, (because Cash flows are more reliable than accruals), some period expenses are - in economic reality - actually long-term investments, and equity capital is expensive (or can say The Company does not create value until a threshold level of return is generated for shareholders.)

In his book, David and Stephen pointed that EVA absorbs the advantage of DCF, using cash flow to evaluate the performance of firm, and furthermore, EVA updates the meaning of profits. In EVA model, economic profits reflect the pure residual income (adjustment to GAAP); it means that profits will be accounted when firms deduct all the capital cost which includes equity capital. Because equity capital is a cost, it could be considered as an opportunity cost. Compare two valuation methods below,

Traditional Valuation
传统估值


Equity Market Capitalization → Discounted [Free Cash Flows] = Intrinsic Value of Firm Equity
股票市值→贴现现金流量=企业股票的内在价值
Economic Profit Valuation
经济利润估值

Equity Market Capitalization → Invested Capital + Discounted [Economic Profit] = Invested Capital + Market Value Added (MVA)
股票市值→投资资本+贴现[经济利润=投资资本+市场增加值(MVA)
From these equations, they disclose the most notable difference between traditional and EVA method is EVA model consider not only equity but also capital cost which invested in firm.
Meanwhile, like DCF, EVA model use WACC as the discount rate, as an operational metric, it helps managers clarify how they create value. Generally, they do it either by investing additional capital that produces returns above WACC, by reducing capital employed in a business, by improving returns by growing revenues or reducing expenses or by reducing the cost of capital, cited by David Harper whom is contributing Editor in Investopedia.

Summary
总结


Compared DCF, DDM and EVA model, each method based on different aspects build up different methodology. Investors could combine all of them to analyze the performance and forecast the value of firms. Actually, there does not have a perfect model which can consider everything and explain everything, however, as long as researcher utilize each model’s advantage, the result which researcher calculated will more precise than only use single model.
相比DCF,DDM和EVA模型,每种方法都基于不同方面建立了不同的方法。投资者可以结合他们的表现进行分析,并预测企业的价值。其实,有没有一个完美的模型,可以考虑一切并说明一切,但是,只要研究人员利用每一个模式的优势,结果,研究人员计算出更精确比只使用单一的模式。


 



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