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中国的企业储蓄之谜:The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle: A Firm-level(4)

时间:2014-01-02 11:55来源:www.ukassignment.org 编辑:Tamim Bayoumi, Hui T 点击:
We then interact this DEP_INV index with the China dummy and later with the stateownership dummy. The results are presented in Tables 8a and 8b. Within those sectors with a higher external financial d
We then interact this DEP_INV index with the China dummy and later with the stateownership dummy. The results are presented in Tables 8a and 8b. Within those sectors with a higher external financial dependence (i.e, higher DEP_INV), Chinese firms have higher gross savings than other countries (Column 1). This is because in these sectors, Chinese firms are making relatively higher profits than their global counterparts (Column 2). A reason might be that Chinese listed firms have relatively lower financing costs. Moreover, within these sectors, Chinese firms issue relatively higher dividends than global counterparts (Column 3), consistent with the argument that Chinese firms may have more access to external finance.
Another possible interpretation on the positive coefficient on the China*DEP_INV interaction term in the profit function is that the contemporaneous profit rate may be a predictor of future investment opportunities. This regression suggests that unexplored investment opportunities are particularly good for Chinese firms in sectors with a higher intrinsic dependence on external finance (Column 2). As a result, these firms also save more(Column 1). To check the validity of this hypothesis, we look at Column 3 and find that the investment in these sectors is not particularly higher in China. As a result, all the gross savings show up as net savings as well.
Now we focus on the sample of Chinese firms and include an interaction term of state dummy and external finance dependence. There we find that state companies and non-state companies have similar gross savings, profits and dividends payouts, which are not affected by whether they are in a sector with high dependence on external finance or not.
At least for publicly listed firms, there is no evidence that those Chinese firms in sectors that are intrinsically more dependent on external finance issue smaller dividends in order to save more than counterparts in other countries. If corporate savings reflects concerns for credit constraints, the evidence suggests that Chinese firms are not more concerned about credit constraints than their peers in other countries. Publicly traded private firms do not appear to face more credit constraints than their majority state-owned counterparts. Of course, small non-listed private firms may very well be credit constrained and therefore need to save more. However, this is true everywhere in the world. In any case, the evidence is not consistent with the contention that mis-governance in state firms and favorable price shocks are the primary cause of a high and rising corporate savings rate.
G. Do Politically Connected Firms Save Less?
The savings rates may be uneven across privately-owned firms. One reason may be different degrees of political connection by firm owners, which may result in uneven access to financing. In other words, while private firms may have a more challenging task in accessing finance when they need to than state-owned firms, those private firms with better political connections may need to save less.7
We examine this possibility by utilizing a measure of political connection constructed by Fan, Wong, and Zhang (2007). The political connection is a dummy for companies whose chairman is a former government official.
The results are presented in Table 9. From Column 1, it is clear that politically better connected private firms do save significantly less. As Columns 2 and 3 reveal, however, the lower level savings does not come from less dividend payout, but instead from a lower profit rate. In other words, firms with better political connection simply perform worse. With a smaller profit, they do not pay smaller dividends or do less investment than firms without a strong political connection. As a result, these firms have a lower gross savings rate and a lower net savings rate.

 

IV. CONCLUSION

 

Chinese companies maintain a high gross savings rate in absolute terms, and often account for as big a share of GDP and household savings. This has led to the mainstream view that (a) corporate savings in China is a key driver of its current account surplus, and (b) high corporate savings is mainly a result of high savings rates by state-owned firms due to mis-governance.
This paper casts doubt on both parts of the mainstream view. Using the aggregate flow-of-funds data, we show that corporate gross savings rates are high and have been rising 7 Other corporate governance factors may affect corporate savings too. For example, Morck, Yeung and Zhao (2007) suggest that enterprise insiders may hide cash from their superiors or successors by tunneling it to tax havens, which could induce the insiders from the beginning to increase corporate savings by reducing dividend payoffs.
in a number of countries. At least Korea and Japan tend to have substantially higher savings rates by their corporate sectors than China’s. Moreover, relative to the investment rate(investment/GDP), China has, in fact, the lowest net savings rate (gross savings rate – investment rate) among the group of major economies. It is the only country that had a negative net corporate savings rate every year during 1995-2007.
Micro firm level evidence could provide better controls for sector and year effects on corporate savings patterns. Once we do that, we see that Chinese corporate savings rates, both gross and net are not that different from those in other economies.
Overall, the notion that Chinese corporate savings drives its current account surplus is not supported by a careful look at the data.


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